Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ac…3974 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-15%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$38
sports 34% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 47% -22.8%
≤30d 17 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 47% -22.8%
≤90d 17 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 47% -22.8%
all 17 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 47% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -22.8%
10% -21.1% 47% -30.2%
15% -28.7% 35% -36.9%
20% -35.7% 24% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 +$19 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -89%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +237%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$27 -66%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$43 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $0 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10h
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes $2 26h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 27h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $30 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records