Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x21ad…07c0 crypto 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$185 (+7%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate86%112W / 18L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 51% -4.7%
≤30d 130 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 51% -4.7%
≤90d 130 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 51% -4.7%
all 130 +4.7% -5.3% 86% 51% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 51% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 9% -13.8%
15% -22.6% 4% -22.1%
20% -30.2% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses112 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$39 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$3 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$4 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$5 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$6 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$4 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $73 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $42 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $31 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $35 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $13 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records