Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21ae…9287 other 55 markets active 11h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+15%) realized +$69 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$95
14 days+$65
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$12
sports 19% +$35
tech 15% +$7
politics 4% +$21
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +12.0% +1.3% 28% 25% +14.5%
≤30d 46 +3.9% -6.0% 26% 24% +0.8%
≤90d 49 +7.0% -3.2% 27% 24% +4.7%
all 49 +7.0% -3.2% 27% 24% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 24% +4.7%
10% -12.5% 24% -5.4%
15% -20.9% 24% -14.5%
20% -28.7% 22% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage34d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +712%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $52 +$50 +97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +250%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 +$3 +740%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 +$17 +550%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +113%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $27 +$36 +136%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +596%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $35 −$25 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 07 $10 −$5 -52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$1 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 25 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $8 +$31 +362%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $52 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 96¢ $191 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.35 · official $22.26 (match) · 106 history records