Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ae…ab03 sports 48 markets active 17h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$1
world 21% −$2
other 15% −$14
sports 15% −$31
culture 10% $0
economics 3% +$2
crypto 2% +$27
weather 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -40.2%
≤30d 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -40.2%
≤90d 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -40.2%
all 47 -15.2% -23.3% 19% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 6% -11.1%
10% -30.7% 6% -19.6%
15% -37.4% 6% -27.3%
20% -43.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage445d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 54¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$16 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bruins vs. Flyers Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24? Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 23 $5 +$10 +194%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $10 +$10 +100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons Feb 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Dec 25 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? Dec 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Nov 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will another MrBeast video get 55m+ day 1 views by September 30? Sep 12 $13 −$8 -59%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 12 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 12 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $15 −$1 -4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $19 $0 -2%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $14 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 31 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 30? Jul 26 $15 $0 -2%
NBA Playoffs: Pacers vs. Bucks (To Advance) Apr 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $7 −$1 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Apr 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 19 $28 $0 -2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 07 $16 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 06 $18 $0 +2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Mar 30 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 57¢ $20 7d
Bruins vs. Flyers BUY Bruins 48¢ $7 108d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 34¢ $3 110d
Thunder vs. Pistons BUY Thunder 29¢ $3 112d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 113d
Nuggets vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 34¢ $5 115d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 39¢ $8 118d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 18? BUY Down 50¢ $10 119d
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons BUY IU Indy Jaguars 27¢ $9 121d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 174d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 174d
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $247 174d
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $248 174d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $245 174d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $246 174d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 174d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 174d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $273 186d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $274 186d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 186d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $274 186d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $271 186d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $272 186d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $272 186d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $272 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.16 · official $4.20 (match) · 112 history records