Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

21 0x21af…e761 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$771 (-25%) realized −$860 · open +$89

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%9W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day15.1pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-10.1%	-18.6%	39%	39%	-9.7%
≤30d	23	-10.1%	-18.6%	39%	39%	-9.7%
≤90d	23	-10.1%	-18.6%	39%	39%	-9.7%
all	23	-10.1%	-18.6%	39%	39%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.6%	39%	-9.7%
10%	-26.4%	35%	-18.3%
15%	-33.5%	35%	-26.2%
20%	-40.1%	26%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$142 vs −$91 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$326

Realized−$860

Unrealized+$89

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses9 / 14

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage2d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day15.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
DR Congo to win the second half?	Yes	53¢	100¢	$100	$189	+$89 (+89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$100	+$16	+16%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$101	+$37	+37%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$101	+$37	+37%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$102	+$183	+180%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$101	−$85	-85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$101	−$71	-70%
Portugal to win the second half?	Jun 28	$102	−$72	-71%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$101	−$98	-97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 28	$102	−$86	-85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND	Jun 27	$203	+$258	+127%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$26	−$2	-6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND	Jun 27	$203	+$214	+105%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W	Jun 27	$204	+$440	+216%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 26	$10	+$16	+154%
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$101	−$100	-99%
United States to win the second half?	Jun 26	$203	−$200	-98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$101	+$74	+73%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$101	−$64	-63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$101	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
United States leading at halftime?	Jun 25	$102	−$100	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5	BUY Under	86¢	$100	29m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	73¢	$101	30m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	30m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$285	31m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	11¢	$16	31m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	17¢	$31	31m
Portugal to win the second half?	SELL Yes	14¢	$30	32m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	32m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	7¢	$16	32m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$102	1h
DR Congo to win the second half?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$101	1h
Portugal to win the second half?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U	BUY	15¢	$10	2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will	BUY	26¢	$30	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	36¢	$25	23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$26	23h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	47h
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	55¢	$101	47h
United States to win the second half?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	47h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	20¢	$38	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	48¢	$203	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	43¢	$203	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	28¢	$102	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W	BUY	31¢	$204	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20	BUY	41¢	$305	2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.50 · official $325.50 (match) · 45 history records