trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 100% | 0% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +31.2% | +18.7% | 100% | 50% | +28.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +280.9% | +244.6% | 100% | 62% | +22.8% |
| all | 15 | +133.2% | +111.0% | 73% | 53% | +15.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +111.0% | 53% | +15.8% |
| 10% | +90.8% | 53% | +4.7% |
| 15% | +72.4% | 40% | -5.4% |
| 20% | +55.5% | 27% | -14.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | $300 | $368 | +$68 (+23%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $300 | $347 | +$47 (+16%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $350 | $219 | −$130 (-37%) |
| Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | $100 | $103 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $200 | $100 | −$100 (-50%) |
| Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 93¢ | 92¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $87 | $87 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $500 | +$14 | +3% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $506 | +$189 | +37% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $580 | +$457 | +79% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $1,145 | +$114 | +10% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $51 | +$37 | +73% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $45 | +$18 | +39% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $141 | +$268 | +190% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $458 | +$104 | +23% |
| Will Ross Ulbricht cry during the Bitcoin 2025 address? | May 31 | $26 | +$7 | +27% |
| Knicks vs. Pacers | May 31 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? | May 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 19 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | May 17 | $105 | +$105 | +100% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 17 | $152 | −$152 | -100% |