Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21b6…e2cb crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$34 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%99W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day120.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$70
weather 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 36% -11.8%
≤30d 194 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 194 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 36% -11.8%
all 194 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 36% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -20.2%
15% -27.3% 21% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses99 / 95
Open positions18
Markets (closed)194 / 212
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day120.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 84¢ 88¢ $129 $136 +$7 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 23¢ 12¢ $53 $26 −$27 (-51%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+41%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 95¢ 96¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 69¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 21¢ 42¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 92¢ $0 $7 +$6 (+2729%)
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? Yes 22¢ 57¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+166%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? No 15¢ 42¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+183%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 22¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 9AM ET? No 92¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Ethereum above 1,830 on June 16, 9AM ET? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 27¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? No 29¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 28¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 21¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $124 −$1 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -70%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$17 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$6 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$12 +77%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $24 1m
Ethereum above 1,830 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1m
Ethereum above 1,830 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY No 92¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY No 15¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.49 · official $258.14 · 917 history records