Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

21 0x21b6…5e29 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$29 (+8%) realized +$36 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate18%3W / 14L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$42

7 days−$42

14 days−$55

30 days−$55

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)+31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-38.1%	-44.0%	0%	0%	-37.9%
≤30d	15	-27.4%	-34.3%	13%	13%	-33.5%
≤90d	17	+44.8%	+31.0%	18%	18%	-5.6%
all	17	+44.8%	+31.0%	18%	18%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.0%	18%	-5.6%
10%	+18.5%	18%	-14.7%
15%	+7.1%	18%	-22.9%
20%	-3.4%	18%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +72% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$6 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage

Net worth$127

Realized+$36

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses3 / 14

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage37d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$55	$54	−$1 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$41	$31	−$9 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$22	$25	+$3 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$32	−$14	-44%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$31	−$15	-47%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$13	−$7	-50%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$56	−$6	-10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$28	−$6	-22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$16	+298%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$12	+220%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 10	$7	−$7	-94%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$5	−$5	-94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	May 23	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$5	+$69	+1274%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$18	58m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$18	59m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$19	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$17	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$32	1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$7	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$50	1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$9	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$11	2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$21	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	80¢	$21	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$13	10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$7	12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$28	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.96 · official $126.96 (match) · 54 history records