Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21b7…c861
sports · 217 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$29,025 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,524 · open +$2,101
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$37,386
Realized+$26,524
Unrealized+$2,101
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses75 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$5,212
Open positions9
Markets (closed)208 / 217
Avg bet$1,404
Trades / day159.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,067
7 days−$50
14 days−$3,450
30 days+$26,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10,400 $10,300 −$100 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9,952 $9,897 −$55 (-1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ 74¢ $2,666 $4,083 +$1,417 (+53%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,171 $3,075 −$96 (-3%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 48¢ 81¢ $1,683 $2,858 +$1,175 (+70%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 38¢ $2,975 $2,695 −$280 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,000 $2,125 +$125 (+6%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 55¢ $1,995 $1,925 −$70 (-4%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $441 $428 −$13 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ 0¢ $910 $0 −$910 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 38¢ 0¢ $1,330 $0 −$1,330 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI HANJIN BRION 9¢ 0¢ $1,754 $0 −$1,754 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 22¢ 0¢ $3,550 $0 −$3,550 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 49¢ 0¢ $1,715 $0 −$1,715 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 29¢ 0¢ $2,596 $0 −$2,596 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 50¢ 0¢ $1,784 $0 −$1,784 (-100%)
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOS 20¢ 0¢ $1,763 $0 −$1,763 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 28¢ 0¢ $988 $0 −$988 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 15¢ 0¢ $1,361 $0 −$1,361 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner FlyQuest 38¢ 0¢ $1,380 $0 −$1,380 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 16¢ 0¢ $2,914 $0 −$2,914 (-100%)
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda Trevor Svajda 38¢ 0¢ $1,330 $0 −$1,330 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Arda Azkara 47¢ 0¢ $1,647 $0 −$1,647 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $1,085 $0 −$1,085 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 41¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $945 +$639 +68%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $794 −$779 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $1,696 +$1,838 +108%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1,262 −$1,260 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $1,015 +$2,485 +245%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $595 −$595 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,085 −$1,085 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,785 +$1,715 +96%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,050 +$2,450 +233%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,741 +$1,759 +101%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $1,505 +$1,995 +133%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,280 +$2,248 +176%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $704 +$2,806 +399%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $875 −$875 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1,575 +$1,925 +122%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $807 −$788 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $385 −$385 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $1,900 +$1,601 +84%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,750 +$1,750 +100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,620 −$1,616 -100%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,424 −$1,403 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $875 −$875 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $1,330 −$1,330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $1,165 −$1,160 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,470 +$2,030 +138%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,925 +$1,575 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $385 −$385 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 08 $100 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $410 −$410 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,155 +$2,345 +203%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2,310 +$1,190 +52%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $632 +$2,874 +455%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $805 −$805 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $1,295 −$1,186 -92%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,600 −$1,158 -72%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,680 +$1,820 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,260 +$2,240 +178%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $1,784 −$1,784 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,260 +$2,240 +178%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $4,284 +$8,038 +188%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,353 +$2,147 +159%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3,550 −$3,550 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,715 −$1,615 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$31,270
other 15% −$2,645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 46¢ $1,584 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $192 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $158 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $58 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $49 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $135 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $222 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $62 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $37 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -3.4% -12.6% 37% 37% -9.2%
≤30d 208 +8.4% -1.9% 36% 35% +0.2%
≤90d 208 +8.4% -1.9% 36% 35% +0.2%
all 208 +8.4% -1.9% 36% 35% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover159.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 35% +0.2%
10% -11.3% 35% -9.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.9% 34% -18.2%
20% -27.7% 34% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,385.99 · official $37,386.34 (match) · 3500 history records