Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

21 0x21b7…d6d1 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$35 (+9%) realized +$43 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate46%6W / 7L

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day16.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+8.1%	-2.2%	46%	31%	+3.9%
≤30d	13	+8.1%	-2.2%	46%	31%	+3.9%
≤90d	13	+8.1%	-2.2%	46%	31%	+3.9%
all	13	+8.1%	-2.2%	46%	31%	+3.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.2%	31%	+3.9%
10%	-11.5%	15%	-6.0%
15%	-20.1%	15%	-15.1%
20%	-27.9%	15%	-23.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses6 / 7

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 17

History coverage3d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day16.0

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	No	57¢	56¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	64¢	54¢	$50	$42	−$8 (-16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$6	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?	No	57¢	69¢	$2	$3	+$0 (+22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$10	$0	-2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$26	+$5	+19%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$2	+$7	+357%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	−$9	-59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$30	+$2	+6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 14	$30	+$4	+14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$20	+$1	+4%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$51	+$88	+172%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	33¢	$2	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	33¢	$0	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	32¢	$0	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	32¢	$1	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	32¢	$0	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	36¢	$0	2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	36¢	$0	2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	SELL Yes	36¢	$1	2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	57¢	$51	2h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI	SELL No	69¢	$0	6h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI	SELL No	69¢	$0	7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	10h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI	SELL No	63¢	$8	16h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI	BUY No	57¢	$10	17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	83¢	$9	23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	83¢	$1	23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	81¢	$1	25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	81¢	$2	25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$30	25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	72¢	$0	25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	72¢	$1	25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	84¢	$10	26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$26	27h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	89¢	$3	34h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$9	36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$2	36h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$15	38h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$15	38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	12¢	$6	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.86 · official $99.87 (match) · 53 history records