Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21b8…b8ff crypto 1173 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%829W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$66
14 days−$76
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -2.7% -12.0% 70% 44% -12.5%
≤30d 450 -1.3% -10.7% 72% 45% -10.7%
≤90d 1173 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 42% -10.7%
all 1173 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 42% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 10% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses829 / 344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage83d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$11 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$11 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$11 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2354 history records