Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21ba…8d60 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,505 (-1%) realized −$1,512 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$966per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$8
politics 34% −$51
sports 6% −$1,490
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -2.5% -11.8% 7% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 112 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -10.8%
all 120 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -10.7%
10% -19.9% 6% -19.3%
15% -27.6% 6% -27.1%
20% -34.7% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,276) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$1,512
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage97d
Avg bet$966
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 +$1 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 48¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,154 −$3 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,596 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $668 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $610 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $2,102 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $789 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,781 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $718 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $227 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $379 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $368 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $306 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $304 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $676 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 36m
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $393 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $394 4h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 6h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 8h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $368 22h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $368 25h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $379 25h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $380 28h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $525 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $526 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $557 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $539 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $540 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $557 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $558 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $517 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $518 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $546 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $546 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $659 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $589 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $519 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $519 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $560 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.14 · official $266.14 (match) · 355 history records