Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21bd…c7af sports 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-19%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$44
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$10
other 32% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.0% -36.6% 33% 33% -32.0%
≤30d 20 -30.8% -37.4% 35% 35% -29.5%
≤90d 20 -30.8% -37.4% 35% 35% -29.5%
all 20 -30.8% -37.4% 35% 35% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 35% -29.5%
10% -43.4% 35% -36.3%
15% -48.9% 35% -42.4%
20% -53.9% 25% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$21 +140%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 −$5 -66%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$3 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 +$17 +57%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 +$14 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$14 -26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$35 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$16 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$10 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $15 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $3 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 6d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $23 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $29 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $38 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $54 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $28 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 12d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $19 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 14d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $11 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records