Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21bf…cc65 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,040 (-27%) realized −$7,040 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 110L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$959
7 days−$3,890
14 days−$4,992
30 days−$8,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$4,732
crypto 43% −$4,556
sports 8% +$927
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.1% -12.3% 20% 20% -32.2%
≤30d 137 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 19% -39.7%
≤90d 137 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 19% -39.7%
all 137 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 19% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 19% -39.7%
10% -31.5% 18% -45.5%
15% -38.1% 18% -50.8%
20% -44.1% 17% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$148 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,040
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage22d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $206 −$28 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $211 −$200 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $402 +$74 +18%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $80 −$58 -73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $514 −$500 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $412 +$197 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,540 −$1,500 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $255 +$598 +234%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,541 −$1,102 -72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $683 −$375 -55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,007 +$238 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,043 −$635 -61%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$252 +123%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,726 +$1,729 +100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $263 −$256 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$107 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $463 −$455 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $156 −$146 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$948 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $157 −$150 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $227 −$219 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $188 +$394 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $284 −$267 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $421 −$395 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $157 +$341 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$251 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $156 +$212 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$215 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $80 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $402 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $76 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $586 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $336 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,028 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $853 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $439 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $72 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $279 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $236 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records