Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
21 0x21c0…ea14 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$256 (+97%) realized +$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$60
sports 39% +$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 42% 33% +57.1%
≤30d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 42% 33% +57.1%
≤90d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 42% 33% +57.1%
all 12 +15.4% +4.4% 42% 33% +57.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 33% +57.1%
10% -5.6% 25% +42.1%
15% -14.7% 25% +28.3%
20% -23.1% 25% +15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$12 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$254 +248%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records