Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21c0…38d9 world 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$864 (-18%) realized −$837 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%61W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$516
14 days−$429
30 days−$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$642
crypto 27% −$307
other 9% −$20
politics 3% +$69
tech 1% +$6
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -54.9% -59.2% 23% 22% -50.4%
≤30d 144 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 33% -24.1%
≤90d 152 -34.0% -40.3% 40% 33% -27.5%
all 152 -34.0% -40.3% 40% 33% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 33% -27.5%
10% -46.0% 24% -34.4%
15% -51.2% 14% -40.7%
20% -56.0% 10% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$837
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses61 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)152 / 173
History coverage36d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+23%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 31¢ 41¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? No 14¢ 16¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 48¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 80¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 70¢ 40¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? No 59¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes 29¢ 84¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+194%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 29 $31 +$3 +9%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +103%
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -103%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $15 +$10 +66%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +37%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$3 -47%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $20 +$15 +73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 27 $20 +$8 +38%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -73%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $32 +$21 +64%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 25 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$9 -29%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$5 -31%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +20%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $41 −$16 -39%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 24 $100 −$47 -47%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $26 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $16 21h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 21h
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 21h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $6 21h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 41h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $3 41h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 70¢ $10 41h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 30¢ $6 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 72¢ $20 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 41h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 47h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.12 · official $272.07 (match) · 625 history records