Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21c6…a95b crypto 794 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,146 (+3%) realized +$2,080 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate79%627W / 165L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$113
14 days−$32
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$217
politics 3% +$23
sports 2% −$65
other 0% +$92
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -22.1% -29.5% 64% 20% -11.0%
≤30d 181 -4.9% -13.9% 85% 17% -8.8%
≤90d 792 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 23% -9.2%
all 792 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 23% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 23% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 15% -17.9%
15% -30.8% 9% -25.9%
20% -37.6% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$2,080
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses627 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)792 / 794
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $528 $594 +$66 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $152 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 23 $26 +$99 +388%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $395 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $137 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $486 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $388 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $232 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $114 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $65 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $189 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$7 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 16¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $191 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $49 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $288 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $68 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $86 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.70 · official $613.70 · 3500 history records