Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21c6…eedf other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$7
economics 6% −$1
crypto 6% +$1
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 236 +0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage129d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $314 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $182 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $328 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $464 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $381 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $656 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $368 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $379 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $321 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $310 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $629 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $695 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 22h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 29h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 37h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 38h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 40h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 44h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 46h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.59 · official $55.59 (match) · 1331 history records