Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21c7…191a world 129 markets active 6h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,745 (-12%) realized −$24,440 · open +$695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 113L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,532per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32,495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,119
7 days−$17,119
14 days−$17,119
30 days−$19,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$16,046
politics 7% +$4,380
other 4% −$1,890
crypto 1% −$1,263
sports 1% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 44 -95.5% -95.9% 2% 2% -91.9%
≤90d 69 -68.8% -71.8% 19% 16% -26.4%
all 156 -34.6% -40.8% 28% 23% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.8% 23% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.5% 20% -32.3%
15% -51.7% 17% -38.8%
20% -56.4% 14% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$522) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$791 vs −$591 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$32,495
Realized−$24,440
Unrealized+$695
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions17
Markets (closed)156 / 129
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$1,532
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18,992 $23,789 +$4,797 (+25%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $3,424 $3,569 +$145 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $2,015 $1,671 −$344 (-17%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $990 $892 −$98 (-10%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1,008 $888 −$120 (-12%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $520 $403 −$117 (-22%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $299 $346 +$48 (+16%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $312 $328 +$16 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $209 $306 +$97 (+47%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $300 $106 −$194 (-65%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,001 $70 −$931 (-93%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
China coup attempt before 2027? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $104 $40 −$65 (-62%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $603 $9 −$594 (-99%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $405 $8 −$397 (-98%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $504 $4 −$500 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1,014 $1 −$1,013 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 29 $2,496 −$2,496 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $173 +$342 +197%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 29 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Jun 29 $108 −$108 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jun 29 $108 −$108 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Jun 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 29 $87 −$88 -101%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Jun 29 $360 −$360 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? Jun 29 $398 −$398 -100%
Russia coup attempt in 2025? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Jun 29 $428 −$2,383 -557%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Jun 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? Jun 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Khamenei public appearance by Friday? Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 29 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jun 29 $108 −$108 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 29 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)? Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jun 29 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 29 $175 −$175 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jun 29 $960 −$960 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Jun 29 $69 −$69 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,004 −$843 -84%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $1,000 −$880 -88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,008 +$192 +19%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 01 $520 −$247 -47%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $1,080 −$101 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 10 $6,244 +$185 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $2,620 +$420 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $10,124 −$3,725 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $5,112 +$1,872 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8,274 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $321 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,494.63 · official $32,494.63 (match) · 3500 history records