Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21c9…b4b0 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$9
politics 25% −$8
other 8% −$38
sports 2% +$16
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +7.4% -2.8% 12% 6% -6.0%
≤90d 34 -5.1% -14.2% 15% 3% -14.6%
all 47 -1.4% -10.8% 21% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 4% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 4% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage585d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 20 $18 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 14 $26 +$31 +118%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $45 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $3,522 −$9 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $1,089 −$7 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $213 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 11h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 27h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.88 · official $28.88 (match) · 213 history records