Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
21 0x21ca…da2e sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$428 (-18%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$13
sports 43% −$468
world 12% +$16
other 1% +$7
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +26.7% +14.6% 100% 67% +0.8%
≤90d 13 +12.7% +2.0% 92% 62% -26.3%
all 15 +13.5% +2.7% 93% 60% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 60% -26.2%
10% -7.1% 40% -33.2%
15% -16.1% 20% -39.7%
20% -24.3% 7% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$600 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage144d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $26 +$11 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 28 $50 +$16 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 28 $300 +$16 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $101 +$55 +55%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $201 +$58 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $609 −$600 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 22 $1,025 +$2 +0%
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? May 13 $17 +$7 +41%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 18 $2 $0 +8%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will Hilton Worldwide (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 18 $2 $0 +19%
Will Robinhood say "Billion" 10+ times during earnings call? Apr 18 $3 $0 +12%
Will Walt Disney Co (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 07 $6 +$1 +10%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Feb 07 $6 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY No 95¢ $300 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 30d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY T1 75¢ $50 30d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 64¢ $101 31d
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $201 31d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $609 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,025 35d
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? BUY No 71¢ $7 66d
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? BUY No 71¢ $10 66d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 91¢ $2 84d
Hawks vs. Nets BUY Hawks 92¢ $2 84d
Bulls vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 90¢ $2 84d
Will Hilton Worldwide (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 136d
Will Robinhood say "Billion" 10+ times during earnings call? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 136d
Will Walt Disney Co (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 144d
Pelicans vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 78¢ $6 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.01 · official $50.01 (match) · 34 history records