Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21ca…3748 sports 618 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77,335 (-18%) realized −$77,422 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%340W / 275L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$686per market
Trades / day44.3pace
Fees−$6,006est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$25,389
other 2% +$430
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 42% -10.9%
≤30d 168 -11.4% -19.9% 51% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 615 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 45% -14.6%
all 615 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 45% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 45% -14.6%
10% -24.7% 31% -22.7%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 20% -30.2%
20% -38.6% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$341 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized−$77,422
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses340 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6,006
Open positions3
Markets (closed)615 / 618
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$686
Trades / day44.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 70¢ 90¢ $257 $334 +$77 (+30%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 58¢ 64¢ $143 $157 +$14 (+10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $310 +$123 +40%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $209 +$112 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $94 +$29 +31%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $40 +$54 +133%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $161 +$36 +22%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $95 +$27 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $134 +$79 +59%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $96 −$1 -1%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $83 +$3 +3%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $20 −$14 -68%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $544 −$305 -56%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $718 −$272 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$115 +57%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $37 −$37 -99%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $212 +$99 +47%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $380 +$89 +24%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $156 −$154 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $392 +$144 +37%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $458 +$76 +17%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $103 +$355 +344%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $196 −$76 -39%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $232 −$126 -54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $105 −$10 -10%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $59 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $117 +$106 +91%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $78 −$77 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $94 +$30 +32%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $73 −$72 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $83 −$81 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $76 +$7 +9%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $55 +$21 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $72 −$70 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $66 +$6 +9%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $55 +$11 +20%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $53 −$52 -99%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $252 −$249 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $309 −$157 -51%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $201 +$41 +20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $389 −$385 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $327 +$72 +22%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$25 +25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $170 −$2 -1%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $359 −$55 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 91¢ $100 3m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 74¢ $7 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 60¢ $101 12m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 53¢ $43 13m
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith SELL Jurij Rodionov 100¢ $433 15m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 60¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $144 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 83¢ $20 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 85¢ $40 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 87¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $126 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 76¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $121 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $123 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 66¢ $120 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $120 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 64¢ $80 1h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $80 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 73¢ $94 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 93¢ $94 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 79¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $101 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 86¢ $30 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $101 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 15¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $10 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $41 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $31 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.07 · official $587.07 (match) · 3500 history records