Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21cf…79ce politics 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
politics 28% −$5
world 25% −$2
sports 2% −$1
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage84d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $1,064 $0 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $990 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 16 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Apr 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 25 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 24m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $34 34m
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 44m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $34 55m
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $992 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 29h
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 100¢ $12 29h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $979 29h
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 100¢ $12 29h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 29h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 30h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 30h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 30h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 47h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $211 2d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $725 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $266 2d
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $992 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,053 2d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records