Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21cf…93b3 crypto 1878 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$505 (-5%) realized −$505 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%1060W / 691L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day92.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$116
14 days+$64
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 +24.5% +12.6% 71% 37% -6.3%
≤30d 1751 +3.2% -6.6% 61% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 1751 +3.2% -6.6% 61% 46% -9.0%
all 1751 +3.2% -6.6% 61% 46% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 46% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 26% -25.7%
20% -31.2% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1060 / 691
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1751 / 1878
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day92.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1751 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +1886%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -793%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -392%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +448%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records