Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d0…ce91 other 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92,722 (+24%) realized +$90,575 · open +$2,147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate37%52W / 87L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,760per market
Trades / day83.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$279,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$32,050
world 30% +$3,680
politics 22% −$215
finance 4% +$576
culture 2% +$35
crypto 2% −$321
sports 1% +$1,033
tech 1% +$891
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -76.7% -78.9% 15% 5% -45.5%
≤30d 129 -3.6% -12.7% 34% 16% +17.8%
≤90d 139 +3.9% -6.0% 37% 19% +17.6%
all 139 +3.9% -6.0% 37% 19% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 19% +17.6%
10% -15.0% 17% +6.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 17% -3.9%
20% -30.8% 16% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +95% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$713 vs −$109 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$279,280
Realized+$90,575
Unrealized+$2,147
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses52 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions220
Markets (closed)139 / 216
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$1,760
Trades / day83.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 220 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $26,517 $26,790 +$273 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $26,302 $26,407 +$104 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $18,548 $18,708 +$160 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $15,478 $15,582 +$105 (+1%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $10,323 $10,327 +$5 (+0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $8,451 $8,434 −$18 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $6,812 $6,806 −$6 (-0%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $6,624 $6,630 +$6 (+0%)
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $6,557 $6,613 +$56 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $6,424 $6,459 +$35 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $6,307 $6,384 +$77 (+1%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $5,786 $6,237 +$451 (+8%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,935 $6,142 +$207 (+3%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 89¢ 80¢ $5,338 $4,829 −$509 (-10%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $4,136 $4,159 +$23 (+1%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No 94¢ 90¢ $3,972 $3,785 −$186 (-5%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $3,626 $3,676 +$50 (+1%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $3,186 $3,379 +$193 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 84¢ $3,256 $3,278 +$21 (+1%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $2,975 $3,200 +$224 (+8%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No 97¢ 98¢ $3,081 $3,092 +$11 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,963 $3,083 +$120 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,920 $2,926 +$7 (+0%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? No 98¢ 95¢ $2,914 $2,825 −$89 (-3%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,647 $2,698 +$51 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dorothy Semu win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election? Jun 17 $75 −$104 -138%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Dillon Gabriel start Week 1 for the Browns? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -95%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NB Jun 17 $79 −$81 -103%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? Jun 17 $1,062 −$1,095 -103%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA Jun 17 $10 −$12 -111%
Will Malik Nabers be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will James Harden join a new team this offseason? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Missing Epstein cell footage released by August 31? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -101%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $207 −$186 -90%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India? Jun 17 $6 −$7 -112%
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA s Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Rudy Gobert win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Jun 17 $19 −$46 -243%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Jun 17 $4 −$11 -289%
Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Drake London be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Johnson be a 2026 NBA All-Star? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $140 −$141 -101%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025– Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $279 −$250 -89%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tyreek Hill be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA se Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Megaquake by March 31? Jun 17 $46 −$43 -94%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Jun 17 $1 −$7 -975%
Will Joe Flacco start Week 1 for the Browns? Jun 17 $16 −$20 -130%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $78 +$191 +246%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 17 $385 −$356 -92%
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$40 -1554%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $13 −$3 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4m
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 11m
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4 20m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $465 46m
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY Yes 3¢ $2 50m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $0 57m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 47¢ $122 1h
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 84¢ $681 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $246 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $138 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 2h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $188 2h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $65 2h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 2h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $51 2h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 2h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $335 2h
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $4 3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 34¢ $18 3h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $135 3h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $180 4h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $644 4h
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 4h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279,280.12 · official $279,364.41 (match) · 3500 history records