Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21d3…8d3f world 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,107 (-3%) realized −$1,108 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%41W / 83L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$781
7 days−$716
14 days−$716
30 days−$716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1,383
other 38% −$65
crypto 4% −$209
sports 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.5% -42.5% 11% 11% -30.0%
≤30d 9 -36.5% -42.5% 11% 11% -30.0%
≤90d 124 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 24% -13.2%
all 124 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 24% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 24% -13.2%
10% -31.2% 16% -21.5%
15% -37.8% 10% -29.1%
20% -43.9% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -26% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$83 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses41 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage73d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 11¢ 11¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$26 -35%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$76 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $148 −$22 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $105 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,364 −$610 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $299 +$65 +22%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $183 −$32 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 16 $15 −$11 -74%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 16 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $105 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 15 $21 +$29 +137%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $54 +$29 +54%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 15 $49 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $65 −$17 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $1,139 −$598 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $103 −$59 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $142 +$83 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $969 −$312 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $18 −$13 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,199 −$561 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $104 −$68 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $70 +$101 +143%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $802 −$16 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $2,119 +$701 +33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $1,363 +$965 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 09 $54 −$7 -13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $555 +$136 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,015 +$94 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $544 −$15 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $67 +$421 +627%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $260 −$65 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $242 +$69 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $69 −$5 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $56 +$13 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $49 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $57 −$5 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1,178 −$1,178 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $24 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $12 10m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $12 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $49 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $23 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $47 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $73 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 16¢ $29 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $44 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $82 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $82 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $67 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 63¢ $52 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 55¢ $53 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $104 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $105 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $105 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $56 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $19 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $25 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $53 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $51 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $69 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $92 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $364 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.23 · official $98.23 (match) · 604 history records