Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21d5…442b sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,590 (-2%) realized −$464 · open −$1,126
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%43W / 50L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$746per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$843est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,944
7 days+$1,095
14 days+$2,777
30 days−$2,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$826
other 11% −$3,499
world 2% −$1,081
crypto 1% +$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 43% -2.3%
≤30d 93 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 93 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 45% -12.5%
all 93 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 45% -12.5%
10% -26.8% 41% -20.8%
15% -33.9% 32% -28.5%
20% -40.4% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,012) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$562 vs −$527 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized−$464
Unrealized−$1,126
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$843
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage28d
Avg bet$746
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 11¢ $1,500 $550 −$950 (-63%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 27¢ 18¢ $500 $324 −$176 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $58 +$42 +73%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$3 +32%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,204 −$1,188 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,605 −$402 -25%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,139 +$3,488 +163%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $851 −$833 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,014 −$1,242 -62%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,214 −$129 -11%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $972 +$1,248 +128%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $67 −$67 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,014 +$1,749 +172%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $842 +$164 +20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,304 −$1,300 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,007 +$307 +30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,433 +$415 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,012 +$421 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,012 −$999 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,096 −$1,081 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,612 +$1,815 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,111 +$628 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $705 −$695 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,134 +$1,560 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,719 +$1,417 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,917 +$794 +41%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $532 −$520 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $936 −$921 -98%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $613 +$1,385 +226%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $242 −$239 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $323 −$176 -55%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $873 −$858 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $401 +$407 +102%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $259 −$256 -99%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,085 −$854 -79%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $23 +$5 +20%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $331 −$238 -72%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $2,533 −$1,210 -48%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $896 +$1,104 +123%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $387 −$380 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $306 −$300 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $562 −$550 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1,011 +$600 +59%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $34 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1,532 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $511 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 SELL 98¢ $100 3h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 3h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,204 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $1,203 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,605 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY 56¢ $58 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2,139 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $851 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $773 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2,014 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $1,084 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,214 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,219 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $972 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,724 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $67 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,014 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,006 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,304 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,314 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $842 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,007 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,433 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,012 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,012 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $410 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.07 · official $874.07 (match) · 177 history records