Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d5…9925 world 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,965 (+4%) realized +$16,188 · open −$223
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate85%158W / 27L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,946per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$15,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$10
14 days−$7
30 days+$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$361
politics 32% +$4,848
other 22% +$4,925
economics 1% +$252
finance 0% +$18
tech 0% −$133
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +9.1% -1.3% 84% 28% -7.8%
≤90d 141 +9.5% -0.9% 86% 16% -7.2%
all 185 +8.9% -1.4% 85% 19% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 19% -7.1%
10% -10.9% 10% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here -19.5% 5% -24.1%
20% -27.4% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,932) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$182 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$15,362
Realized+$16,188
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses158 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)185 / 204
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$1,946
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 97¢ 100¢ $6,658 $6,821 +$163 (+2%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $2,135 $2,282 +$146 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $1,163 $1,172 +$8 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $909 $1,050 +$140 (+15%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $697 $702 +$5 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $650 $659 +$9 (+1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $488 $500 +$12 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $493 $496 +$3 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $435 $458 +$22 (+5%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 16¢ $1,225 $419 −$806 (-66%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 66¢ 80¢ $330 $401 +$71 (+22%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $211 $219 +$8 (+4%)
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? No 64¢ 54¢ $54 $46 −$9 (-17%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 76¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $1,899 +$22 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $83 +$7 +8%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $768 +$35 +5%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 21 $40 +$6 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $330 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $122 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $643 −$60 -9%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $334 +$18 +5%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 14 $888 +$111 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $165 −$12 -8%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $736 +$177 +24%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $449 −$310 -69%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 08 $85 +$61 +72%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 06 $263 +$16 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $278 +$1 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 05 $106 +$130 +122%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 03 $205 +$12 +6%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 02 $176 +$4 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $7,090 +$91 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $955 +$12 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $866 +$135 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $10,080 +$79 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,986 +$14 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 24 $3,901 +$187 +5%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $1,190 +$28 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,226 +$67 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $991 +$172 +17%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $3,452 +$47 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $53 $0 +0%
Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 31? May 19 $27 +$9 +35%
Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by May 19? May 19 $29 +$10 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $106 +$3 +3%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 16 $98 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,985 +$15 +1%
Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $204 +$7 +4%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? May 15 $747 +$20 +3%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 15 $387 +$33 +8%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $383 +$16 +4%
Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026? May 14 $193 +$25 +13%
Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $171 +$10 +6%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $2,996 +$121 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $6,011 +$519 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $969 30m
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 48m
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 49¢ $10 1h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 49¢ $12 1h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 49¢ $3 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $627 1h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $6 2h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $12 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $9 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $12 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $18 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 60¢ $3 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 70¢ $10 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 70¢ $4 3h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 80¢ $8 3h
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 5h
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $957 6h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $257 9h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 9h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 9h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 9h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $8 15h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $39 15h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $116 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,362.37 · official $15,366.15 (match) · 3500 history records