trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | May 15 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Apr 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 17 | $3 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Apr 07 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Apr 07 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Apr 07 | $4 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Apr 06 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? | Mar 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 30 | $6 | −$3 | -47% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Mar 29 | $2 | −$1 | -49% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | Mar 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -66.1% | -69.4% | 10% | 5% | -52.9% |
| all | 20 | -66.1% | -69.4% | 10% | 5% | -52.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -69.4% | 5% | -52.9% |
| 10% | -72.3% | 0% | -57.4% |
| 15% | -75.0% | 0% | -61.6% |
| 20% | -77.4% | 0% | -65.3% |