Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21da…0c34 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized +$25 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$38
crypto 12% −$12
politics 2% $0
other 1% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -71.9% -74.6% 12% 0% -59.0%
≤30d 8 -71.9% -74.6% 12% 0% -59.0%
≤90d 8 -71.9% -74.6% 12% 0% -59.0%
all 16 -28.1% -34.9% 50% 38% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 38% -19.1%
10% -41.2% 31% -26.8%
15% -46.9% 19% -33.9%
20% -52.1% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage182d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 64¢ 60¢ $715 $677 −$38 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 2? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 13 $44 +$13 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Jan 02 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 27? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29? Dec 30 $2 +$2 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $38 41m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $280 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 65¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 66¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 66¢ $73 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 66¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 66¢ $26 2h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 67¢ $96 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 67¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? BUY No 41¢ $10 164d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? BUY No 79¢ $14 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? BUY No 78¢ $20 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? BUY No 72¢ $10 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? BUY No 92¢ $5 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? BUY No 48¢ $5 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? BUY No 57¢ $5 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? BUY No 69¢ $5 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 2? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 176d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? BUY No 25¢ $2 176d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31? SELL No 56¢ $4 178d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 178d
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 178d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $5 178d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? BUY No 85¢ $5 178d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $5 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.35 · official $677.35 (match) · 49 history records