Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21db…2a42 sports 804 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$378 (+1%) realized +$351 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%351W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$636est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$454
14 days+$440
30 days−$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$131
other 4% −$32
weather 1% +$23
crypto 0% −$14
tech 0% −$51
politics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +54.1% +39.4% 67% 67% +44.6%
≤30d 169 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -16.7%
≤90d 762 -9.4% -18.1% 41% 40% -14.4%
all 798 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 42% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 42% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 41% -18.2%
15% -29.9% 40% -26.1%
20% -36.8% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$56 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$351
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses351 / 447
Est. fees paid−$636
Open positions6
Markets (closed)798 / 804
History coverage101d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$58 +114%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$65 +129%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$50 +100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$75 +150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$110 +216%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$174 +171%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $20 +$57 +278%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $71 +$176 +246%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$146 +145%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $257 −$257 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $51 +$49 +97%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $305 −$305 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $99 +$101 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $152 +$151 +99%
Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $145 −$145 -100%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 +$24 +119%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $147 −$147 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 +$81 +158%
Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $51 +$56 +109%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 +$49 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $20 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $17 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $3 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $34 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 5d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $8 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $33 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.69 · official $266.69 (match) · 2641 history records