Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21df…92f1 crypto 175 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-7%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate65%114W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$140
14 days−$111
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$182
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -8.3% -17.0% 66% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 173 -3.1% -12.4% 66% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 175 -4.2% -13.4% 65% 49% -15.5%
all 175 -4.2% -13.4% 65% 49% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 49% -15.5%
10% -21.7% 35% -23.6%
15% -29.2% 25% -30.9%
20% -36.2% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses114 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage29d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$22 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$18 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$31 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records