Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21df…7078 crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,386 (-4%) realized +$1,745 · open −$4,131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 39L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$775per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$844est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$10,234
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$15
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.3% -26.1% 43% 43% -35.7%
≤30d 39 -14.7% -22.8% 51% 44% -19.2%
≤90d 74 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 42% -19.8%
all 74 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 42% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -19.8%
10% -22.9% 36% -27.4%
15% -30.3% 36% -34.5%
20% -37.2% 32% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$603 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,745
Unrealized−$4,131
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$844
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage57d
Avg bet$775
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 1¢ $4,180 $49 −$4,131 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5,600 −$3,419 -61%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6,384 +$7,199 +113%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $14,010 −$12,520 -89%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4,988 −$4,914 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3,973 +$3,574 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $13 +$7 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $7,631 +$1,009 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $30 +$1 +2%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 30 $4,382 +$4,245 +97%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $150 −$147 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $73 −$71 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $218 +$4 +2%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl May 24 $1,172 −$1,156 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $726 +$342 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $2,181 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $324 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $367 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,329 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $168 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $284 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $16 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $17 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $38 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $29 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $4,180 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6,384 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4,988 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $119 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $118 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $59 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $584 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $83 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $1,335 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $7,511 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $4,200 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $38 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $88 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $248 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $37 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $330 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.40 · official $49.40 (match) · 241 history records