Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21df…1b1b other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$765 (-19%) realized −$765 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$268
7 days+$268
14 days+$268
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$862
crypto 10% +$88
sports 7% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.4% -3.7% 53% 53% +37.8%
≤30d 15 +6.4% -3.7% 53% 53% +37.8%
≤90d 18 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 50% -4.2%
all 40 +24.5% +12.6% 48% 48% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 48% -22.2%
10% +1.9% 48% -29.7%
15% -8.0% 42% -36.5%
20% -17.0% 35% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$84 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$765
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage184d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $229 +$71 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Jun 27 $129 +$180 +139%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $329 −$324 -99%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $332 −$326 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,335 +$527 +40%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $391 −$391 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $271 −$271 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $84 +$187 +222%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $58 +$26 +45%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 31 $26 +$32 +122%
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $7 +$19 +284%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $6 +$34 +566%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $22 +$27 +122%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3 +$12 +400%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Jan 25 $3 +$11 +334%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $22 −$12 -51%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $147 −$84 -57%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Dec 26 $5 +$6 +122%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Dec 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $63 +$17 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total BUY 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $229 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY 16¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.71 · official $38.64 · 90 history records