Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

21 0x21e1…fed3 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 684d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$746 (+35%) realized +$919 · open −$173

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip

Net edge+88%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$267per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$161

7 days+$161

14 days+$161

30 days+$161

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+88.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+158.1%	+133.5%	100%	100%	+133.5%
≤30d	1	+158.1%	+133.5%	100%	100%	+133.5%
≤90d	1	+158.1%	+133.5%	100%	100%	+133.5%
all	5	+108.2%	+88.3%	80%	80%	+49.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+88.3%	80%	+49.8%
10%	+70.3%	80%	+35.5%
15%	+53.9%	80%	+22.4%
20%	+38.8%	80%	+10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +158% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +108% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$355 vs −$501 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage

Net worth$558

Realized+$919

Unrealized−$173

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage684d

Avg bet$267

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	29¢	20¢	$581	$408	−$173 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$102	+$161	+158%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?	Jan 28	$300	+$370	+124%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Oct 18	$501	−$501	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi	Oct 18	$246	+$666	+270%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$249	+$221	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$263	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	25h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	29¢	$581	246d
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?	BUY Yes	45¢	$300	246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	61¢	$501	246d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi	BUY Yes	27¢	$246	648d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	53¢	$249	684d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.71 · official $557.91 (match) · 256 history records