Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21e5…b7e9 weather 1495 markets active 5h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%1467W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$90
14 days−$146
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$124
sports 1% +$23
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 2% -12.0%
≤30d 656 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 2% -10.2%
≤90d 1494 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -9.7%
all 1494 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$26 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1467 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1494 / 1495
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 +$5 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 35h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 96¢ $9 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 95¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 94¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 47h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.46 · official $30.46 (match) · 3500 history records