Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

21 0x21e5…ea80 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$14 (-7%) realized −$6 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+17.0%	+5.8%	67%	67%	-13.7%
≤30d	3	+17.0%	+5.8%	67%	67%	-13.7%
≤90d	3	+17.0%	+5.8%	67%	67%	-13.7%
all	3	+17.0%	+5.8%	67%	67%	-13.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.8%	67%	-13.7%
10%	-4.3%	67%	-21.9%
15%	-13.5%	67%	-29.5%
20%	-22.0%	67%	-36.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$50 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.89 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$79

Realized−$6

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	13¢	$88	$79	−$8 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$20	+$19	+93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Jun 14	$45	+$26	+58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$39	1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	66¢	$51	40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	51¢	$20	2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	SELL Yes	70¢	$71	2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY Yes	45¢	$45	8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.37 · official $79.37 (match) · 16 history records