Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21e8…b85e sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,001 (+9%) realized +$11,614 · open +$4,387
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%71W / 52L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,381per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1,435est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11,987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,328
7 days−$1,265
14 days+$185
30 days+$1,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$13,149
other 19% +$3,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.0% -29.5% 38% 38% -12.4%
≤30d 46 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 92 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 57% -8.7%
all 123 +4.3% -5.7% 58% 58% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 58% -3.1%
10% -14.7% 56% -12.4%
15% -22.9% 50% -20.8%
20% -30.5% 37% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,102 vs −$1,275 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$11,987
Realized+$11,614
Unrealized+$4,387
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses71 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,435
Open positions5
Markets (closed)123 / 128
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,381
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $2,300 $4,400 +$2,100 (+91%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 84¢ $2,100 $3,412 +$1,313 (+63%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 56¢ 94¢ $1,200 $2,014 +$814 (+68%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 77¢ $1,000 $1,167 +$167 (+17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,541 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,046 +$3,077 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,542 −$2,500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2,028 +$1,689 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,624 +$1,573 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,063 +$4,350 +107%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$503 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,547 +$2,823 +80%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $712 −$700 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1,018 +$1,497 +147%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $304 −$15 -5%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,015 −$69 -7%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1,012 +$660 +65%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,128 +$1,689 +79%
Will IK Oddevold win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,522 +$1,388 +91%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $774 +$993 +128%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 06 $1,008 +$348 +34%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $606 +$270 +45%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $708 +$393 +56%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 02 $912 +$673 +74%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1,514 +$650 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $506 +$288 +57%
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 01 $1,015 +$974 +96%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $306 −$300 -98%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,317 −$1,300 -99%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 3.5 May 31 $204 +$557 +272%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1,014 +$838 +83%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score May 17 $1,013 +$707 +70%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,037 +$3,224 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 56¢ $1,216 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,130 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,493 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,541 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $1,010 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,333 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2,025 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,542 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2,018 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,046 40h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,717 46h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2,021 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,197 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8,413 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $609 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,032 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,514 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,519 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,014 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,986.53 · official $11,986.53 (match) · 241 history records