Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21eb…6ded other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$456 (-45%) realized −$453 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$525
other 44% +$62
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -35.3% -41.5% 23% 19% -56.5%
≤30d 26 -35.3% -41.5% 23% 19% -56.5%
≤90d 26 -35.3% -41.5% 23% 19% -56.5%
all 26 -35.3% -41.5% 23% 19% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 19% -56.5%
10% -47.1% 15% -60.7%
15% -52.2% 15% -64.5%
20% -56.9% 12% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$453
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $82 +$56 +69%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $89 +$14 +16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $267 −$263 -98%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $258 −$255 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 +$1 +1%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$1 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-2 Jun 23 $2 −$1 -51%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$4 +52%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $13 +$22 +165%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$10 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $22 −$1 -3%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $77 16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 39h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $256 40h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $258 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 79¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 80¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 82¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 82¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 83¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.66 · official $112.66 (match) · 67 history records