Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21ec…48a5 sports 69 markets active 1d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,763 (-11%) realized −$4,763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 32L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,018
7 days−$3,460
14 days−$3,460
30 days−$4,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$2,144
world 27% −$835
finance 22% −$1,660
other 16% −$50
politics 2% +$5
crypto 2% −$223
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -27.1% -34.0% 50% 20% -37.2%
≤30d 20 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 15% -28.9%
≤90d 63 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 29% -20.2%
all 69 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 29% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 29% -20.1%
10% -26.7% 19% -27.8%
15% -33.8% 13% -34.8%
20% -40.3% 10% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$187 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage101d
Avg bet$607
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $949 −$18 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,201 −$1,200 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,601 +$28 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,003 +$42 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,001 +$27 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3,380 −$1,361 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $26 +$1 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2,806 −$27 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $10 −$2 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $4,000 −$519 -13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $513 −$32 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 21 $26 +$2 +7%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,039 +$8 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $765 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 13 $26 +$4 +17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $94 −$18 -19%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $66 −$65 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $53 +$13 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $168 +$26 +16%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $156 +$43 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $50 +$30 +60%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $255 −$58 -23%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $154 +$37 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $511 +$183 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $3,240 −$219 -7%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $497 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $2,906 −$229 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $3,796 −$98 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $1,960 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 06 $21 +$18 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $235 −$15 -6%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $500 +$26 +5%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $500 +$30 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4? Apr 03 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $55 +$42 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $98 −$60 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 53¢ $932 30h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 53¢ $949 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,000 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,201 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,601 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1,003 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 SELL Over 97¢ $120 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 26¢ $815 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 36¢ $119 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 36¢ $2 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 38¢ $1,084 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 52¢ $3,380 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 72¢ $104 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 54¢ $137 20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records