Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21ec…7307 sports 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,959 (-3%) realized −$7,722 · open −$237
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%320W / 177L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,367est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$239
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$9,181
other 1% +$205
crypto 1% −$15
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.4% -18.9% 0% 0% -18.9%
≤30d 21 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 29% -28.0%
≤90d 439 -4.9% -14.0% 64% 39% -12.5%
all 497 -4.7% -13.8% 64% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 38% -12.4%
10% -22.1% 20% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 10% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$179 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,722
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses320 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,367
Open positions2
Markets (closed)497 / 499
History coverage351d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 497 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 91¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $249 −$26 -10%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $174 −$173 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $207 −$33 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $214 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $78 +$13 +17%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $188 −$88 -47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $227 +$18 +8%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $63 +$17 +28%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $61 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $112 −$62 -55%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $11 −$5 -48%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $71 −$2 -3%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $58 +$13 +22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $49 +$10 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 24 $50 −$1 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner May 24 $37 +$13 +34%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $40 +$20 +49%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 May 24 $18 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 19 $54 −$37 -68%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $347 −$344 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 16 $355 +$71 +20%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs TDK (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Clo Apr 30 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $44 −$21 -48%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Apr 30 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 28 $45 −$44 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $39 +$6 +16%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $173 −$52 -30%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $600 −$20 -3%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $700 −$691 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $1,076 −$42 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$27 +27%
Shymkent 2: Oleg Prihodko vs Alexandr Binda Apr 27 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 27 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$15 +15%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 3AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 3AM ET Apr 27 $25 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2AM ET Apr 27 $100 +$7 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $100 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $200 +$74 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner Apr 26 $664 +$72 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $151 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 52¢ $151 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $176 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 91¢ $88 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $2 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 94¢ $172 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $148 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 26¢ $49 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 88¢ $174 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner SELL BIG 60¢ $173 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 70¢ $207 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 67¢ $207 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $214 12d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sharks 100¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 53¢ $90 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sharks 99¢ $90 15d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 84¢ $78 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL GamerLegion 72¢ $78 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 90¢ $98 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 99¢ $99 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 77¢ $77 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 50¢ $77 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 44¢ $70 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 66¢ $70 15d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 74¢ $80 15d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL FlyQuest 99¢ $80 15d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY FlyQuest 77¢ $63 15d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St SELL MIBR 78¢ $63 15d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 75¢ $61 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 1916 history records