Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ec…9032 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-14%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$320
14 days−$404
30 days−$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$248
other 15% −$156
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 40% -35.6%
≤30d 49 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 41% -36.2%
≤90d 49 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 41% -36.2%
all 49 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 41% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 41% -36.2%
10% -31.2% 35% -42.3%
15% -37.9% 29% -47.9%
20% -44.0% 24% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$41 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $117 −$61 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$27 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$24 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$42 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$18 +91%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $49 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$19 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$20 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 −$95 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$24 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$33 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 −$64 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $58 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 15¢ $56 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records