Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21ed…1ea1 sports 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,457 (+2%) realized +$2,712 · open −$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%127W / 139L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1,712est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,547
7 days+$1,676
14 days+$4,821
30 days+$1,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,817
other 1% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.3% -12.5% 41% 39% -0.8%
≤30d 143 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 41% -6.7%
≤90d 266 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 46% -8.0%
all 266 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 46% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 46% -8.0%
10% -17.3% 45% -16.8%
15% -25.3% 45% -24.8%
20% -32.6% 44% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$549) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$391 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized+$2,712
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses127 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,712
Open positions2
Markets (closed)266 / 268
History coverage77d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) Acend 45¢ 79¢ $324 $563 +$239 (+74%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 32¢ 0¢ $495 $1 −$494 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $533 +$1,129 +212%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $847 −$837 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $440 $0 -0%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $177 −$177 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 27 $180 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $608 +$815 +134%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $348 −$348 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $273 −$273 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,075 +$915 +85%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $215 +$233 +108%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 27 $135 +$124 +92%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $28 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $83 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $359 −$359 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,051 +$1,051 +100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $467 −$467 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $256 +$307 +120%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $611 +$1,162 +190%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $550 −$541 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $333 −$333 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $691 +$637 +92%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $307 −$302 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $751 −$751 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $390 +$756 +194%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $843 +$1,112 +132%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $457 +$595 +130%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $265 −$260 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $379 +$431 +114%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $14 +$17 +117%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $408 −$402 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $533 −$533 -100%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $362 −$362 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $614 −$605 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $249 −$249 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $284 −$283 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $423 +$440 +104%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $352 +$448 +127%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $114 +$13 +12%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $577 −$575 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $646 −$416 -64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,052 +$1,052 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $249 +$320 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $450 +$450 +100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $446 +$446 +100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $628 +$768 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $281 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $224 2h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) BUY Acend 45¢ $184 2h
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) BUY Acend 46¢ $145 2h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng SELL Subtop De France 100¢ $1,662 2h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 33¢ $194 3h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 32¢ $173 3h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 30¢ $113 3h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 28¢ $52 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $415 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $432 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 62¢ $25 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 62¢ $57 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 62¢ $276 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 62¢ $82 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $326 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $87 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $20 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $7 7h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $14 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $6 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $6 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $13 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $11 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $27 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $5 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $22 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $11 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $3 20h
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY YFT Esports 44¢ $16 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.50 · official $563.50 (match) · 1300 history records