Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ed…73e7 crypto 605 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$113 (-6%) realized −$108 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%245W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$5
14 days−$158
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$55
sports 8% −$15
weather 4% −$69
other 4% −$5
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 313 -4.4% -13.5% 51% 38% -10.1%
≤30d 597 -21.1% -28.6% 41% 34% -16.9%
≤90d 597 -21.1% -28.6% 41% 34% -16.9%
all 597 -21.1% -28.6% 41% 34% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 34% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 34% -24.8%
15% -41.7% 33% -32.1%
20% -47.4% 32% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses245 / 352
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)597 / 605
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Harris II hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+95%)
Will the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? U 86.5 25¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+105%)
Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will Roman Anthony hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will Trea Turner hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Jackson Merrill hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will CJ Abrams hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 262 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.87 · official $4.87 (match) · 1324 history records