Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21ef…91fd
politics · 42 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$15 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$15
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 42
History coverage23d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? No 87¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$3 -7%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +15%
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? May 29 $0 +$1 +453%
BC Dubai vs. Buducnost May 25 $33 −$6 -20%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Hamilton? May 25 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $97 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 32% $0
other 30% +$2
sports 26% −$12
economics 9% −$3
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 55¢ $4 4h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 7 +59.9% +44.7% 29% 29% -15.8%
≤90d 7 +59.9% +44.7% 29% 29% -15.8%
all 7 +59.9% +44.7% 29% 29% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.7% 29% -15.8%
10% +30.8% 14% -23.9%
15% +18.2% 14% -31.2%
20% +6.6% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.64 · official $14.40 (match) · 213 history records