Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
21 0x21f5…c161 sports 943 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,189 (+8%) realized +$38,418 · open −$3,229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%392W / 544L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$4,281est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,814
7 days−$22,732
14 days+$1,136
30 days−$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$20,536
other 28% +$6,480
finance 4% +$3,267
crypto 2% −$2,671
world 2% −$318
culture 1% +$10
politics 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -62.1% -65.7% 17% 17% -45.7%
≤30d 230 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 35% -10.0%
≤90d 732 -3.6% -12.8% 41% 40% -4.1%
all 936 -3.8% -13.0% 42% 40% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 40% -3.4%
10% -21.3% 39% -12.6%
15% -28.9% 37% -21.1%
20% -35.9% 34% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$600) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$592 vs −$370 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$4,131
Realized+$38,418
Unrealized−$3,229
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses392 / 544
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$4,281
Open positions5
Markets (closed)936 / 943
History coverage116d
Avg bet$486
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $2,500 $1,964 −$536 (-21%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 58¢ 53¢ $1,400 $1,276 −$124 (-9%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 47¢ $860 $879 +$19 (+2%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1,100 $10 −$1,090 (-99%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1,500 $2 −$1,498 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,521 +$1,308 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,016 +$1,098 +108%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $112 −$110 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,322 −$1,300 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $2,060 +$1,883 +91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $379 −$370 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,050 −$3,000 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1,422 −$1,388 -98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $527 −$516 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $713 +$1,229 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $306 +$550 +180%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,114 +$666 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $472 −$460 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,397 +$1,251 +90%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4,992 +$4,675 +94%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,496 −$1,463 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $1,450 −$1,427 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,194 −$1,166 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $901 −$44 -5%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,607 −$1,580 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $811 +$708 +87%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $915 −$900 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,032 −$21 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $842 −$55 -6%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $1,146 −$1,130 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $113 −$111 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos leading at halftime? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5) Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $504 −$504 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $406 −$406 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Ehime FC (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ehime FC vs. Roasso Kumamoto: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $506 −$506 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $874 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,538 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,529 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,829 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,114 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $112 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,322 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,521 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,016 4h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 51¢ $30 24h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 52¢ $2,029 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,081 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $379 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3,050 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 28h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 28h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 37h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $910 37h
South Africa to win the second half? AND South Africa leading at halft BUY 7¢ $103 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $204 38h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 60¢ $87 42h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $527 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,942 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $856 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $306 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,780 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $472 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $510 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,130.78 · official $4,181.80 · 2566 history records