Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x21f6…c4ef sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+17%) realized +$239 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$230
sports 38% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤30d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤90d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% +10.0%
all 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 50% +10.0%
10% -40.4% 50% -0.5%
15% -46.2% 50% -10.1%
20% -51.4% 0% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$100 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 56¢ 42¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 10¢ $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 23m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.40 · official $95.99 (match) · 5 history records