Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21f7…4c3a sports 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-2%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%336W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$25
14 days−$4
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$183
crypto 2% −$28
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +8.0% -2.2% 79% 38% -10.7%
≤30d 450 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 34% -9.9%
≤90d 504 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 34% -11.9%
all 504 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 34% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 34% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 22% -20.4%
15% -26.9% 16% -28.1%
20% -34.0% 12% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses336 / 168
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)504 / 506
History coverage51d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 93¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $51 +$2 +5%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $20 −$6 -32%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $55 +$1 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Ryan Seggerman 100¢ $1 8m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 89¢ $1 28m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 93¢ $5 28m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 80¢ $1 29m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 49¢ $0 43m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 51¢ $7 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 52¢ $7 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 49¢ $10 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 73¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire SELL Michele Ribecai 100¢ $54 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ $8 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Noemi Basiletti $0 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 62¢ $10 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 97¢ $40 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 55¢ $6 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 93¢ $10 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet SELL Julia Grabher 100¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 58¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 62¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 84¢ $1 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 96¢ $9 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 95¢ $1 2h
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin SELL Alessandro Spadola 99¢ $26 3h
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin BUY Alessandro Spadola 93¢ $5 3h
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin BUY Alessandro Spadola 93¢ $5 3h
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin BUY Alessandro Spadola 93¢ $5 3h
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin BUY Alessandro Spadola 95¢ $10 3h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai SELL Shintaro Imai 100¢ $56 4h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 99¢ $50 4h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 86¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.67 · official $5.67 (match) · 1577 history records