Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
21 0x21f7…1b34 sports 81 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,246 (+18%) realized +$5,266 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$584
other 36% +$4,387
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +20.6% +9.1% 51% 51% +7.2%
≤30d 77 +20.6% +9.1% 51% 51% +7.2%
≤90d 77 +20.6% +9.1% 51% 51% +7.2%
all 77 +20.6% +9.1% 51% 51% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 51% +7.2%
10% -1.3% 51% -3.0%
15% -10.8% 49% -12.4%
20% -19.6% 49% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$433 vs −$313 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,279
Realized+$5,266
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage7d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 33¢ 32¢ $1,299 $1,279 −$20 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $124 +$232 +187%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,208 −$1,190 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $483 −$477 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $811 +$669 +82%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $507 +$435 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$370 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $194 −$190 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 19 $301 −$295 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $242 −$237 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $762 −$750 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $508 +$603 +119%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $162 +$292 +180%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $153 +$288 +188%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $406 −$400 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$555 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $199 −$195 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $248 −$243 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $598 +$456 +76%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $503 +$451 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $282 +$466 +165%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $279 −$274 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $853 +$826 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $218 −$213 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $702 +$1,015 +145%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $687 +$478 +70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $495 +$563 +114%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $585 +$523 +89%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $196 −$192 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$622 +203%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $396 +$399 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$347 +68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$348 +172%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $405 +$214 +53%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $300 −$296 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$316 +158%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $275 +$236 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $509 +$681 +134%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $169 +$625 +371%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $186 −$182 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $529 +$615 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $1,325 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 74¢ $355 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $510 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $701 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 55¢ $483 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $1,480 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $124 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $942 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $876 11h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $194 11h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $301 11h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $242 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $762 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 14¢ $120 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $406 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $811 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $153 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $162 22h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $153 22h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $181 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,063 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $199 34h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $248 34h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $102 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 34h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $598 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,278.98 · official $1,278.98 (match) · 125 history records