Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21fa…04ba other 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$27
sports 25% −$70
crypto 25% +$8
politics 6% +$2
weather 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 29% -33.4%
≤30d 19 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 32% -15.3%
≤90d 19 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 32% -15.3%
all 19 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 32% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 32% -15.3%
10% -28.5% 32% -23.4%
15% -35.4% 21% -30.8%
20% -41.7% 16% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $154 −$65 -42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $111 +$3 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +196%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $49 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $40 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 15¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 34¢ $21 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $13 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $108 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.51 · official $54.51 (match) · 58 history records